Equibase Analysis: Kentucky Derby Contention Runs Deeper Than Fierceness, Sierra Leone

Overview

The purse for the 150^th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve fittingly has been raised to $5 million. Twenty-two horses entered and 20 are expected to run, led by G1 Florida Derby winner Fierceness and G1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone. G2 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Resilience is another top Derby prep winner.

The contention doesn’t stop there as G1 Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold, Grade 1 Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly and Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product all hope to run the best races of their careers to make their mark. G1 Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel is another proven at this top level among 3-year-olds. Ten of the other 13 enter the Derby off second-, third-, or fourth-place efforts in major preps. Japanese-breds T O Password and Forever Young, the latter winner of the Group 2 U.A.E. Derby in his most recent start, are undefeated in seven races combined in their careers and attempt to be the first Japanese bred horses to wear the garland of roses.

Some rules are made to be broken, while others are not

Not on that list is the Louisiana Derby and Tampa Bay Derby, which in recent years have been run six to eight weeks before the Kentucky Derby. As compared to the races run three to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, that additional time off has proven to make it more difficult for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby, evidenced by the fact that those races have only produced three Kentucky Derby winners in the past 20 years. Among the other two prep races, the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the G3 Lexington Stakes, there have been three winners in the last quarter century. Therefore, the weight given to horses coming out of these four prep races, even the winners of those races, has to be less than the weight given to the top two finishers in the five major prep races. Additionally, no horse having won the U.A.E. Derby or its last race in Japan has run well in the Kentucky Derby.

Improvement through the spring is important

Another important factor is how horses have improved, or not improved, in the spring of their 3-year-old season. These are athletes and should be getting stronger physically, and therefore faster, during their 3-year-old season. Although handicapping most races, including the Derby, is more art than science, there is a way to determine these patterns of improvement and hopefully project them to the first Saturday in May. The way we do this is using speed figures, in this case the Equibase Speed Figures, which makes it easy to compare horses that have run on different tracks and surfaces and accounts for things we can’t see.

How the race may be run is significant

Another factor in determining who has the best chances to succeed has to do with the early pace in the race, specifically the first half-mile to three-quarters of a mile. The time of those early fractions can be significant, but as significant is how many horses will try for the lead early in the race. In 2022 there were four horse vying for the lead and the opening quarter mile was impossibly fast (21.78 seconds) for a mile and one-quarter race and the half-mile (45.36 seconds) was much faster than average, helping Rich Strike to post the massive upset rallying from 18^th in the early stages. Last year, Mage rallied from 16^th into an opening quarter in :22.35 and a half-mile in :45.77. The opposite occurred in 2021 when original winner Medina Spirit (since disqualified) set a slower opening fraction of 23.09 and ran the first half-mile in 46.70. Similarly, Authentic led through a half-mile in 46.41 and was able to hold on in the COVID-delayed 2020 Derby run in September.

In this year’s Kentucky Derby, Dornoch gets the inside post (rail) in the gate, and his three wins from October through March all came when he led from the start. Knowing jockey Luis Saez realizes there will be a lot of horses coming closer to the rail from the start to save ground, Dornoch is likely to be sent for the lead as hard as possible to ensure he is not caught behind horses. Track Phantom earned three wins in a row from November through January when leading from the start, before second- and fourth-place efforts, also when leading from the start until the final furlong. He adds blinkers, which normally causes a horse to show more early speed. Although his trainer, Steve Asmussen, stated Track Phantom doesn’t need the lead to be successful, the evidence says otherwise. T O Password led from start to finish when winning the Fukuryu Stakes in his most recent race. At the least, those three will battle for the lead from the start and possibly run as fast in the opening half-mile as the Derby was run in 2022 and 2023, with all tiring from those efforts.

Then there’s Fierceness, the morning line favorite who won the Florida Derby by 13 ½ lengths in his most recent race. Fierceness led from start to finish in that race, stalked the pacesetter in second last fall when winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished third in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes in February after pressing the pace in third for the opening half-mile before making the lead. However, even though Fierceness has shown the ability to relax off the pacesetter, given he draws the 17 post in the gate it is a must that jockey John Velazquez asks the horse for early speed to get good position going into the first turn. Assuming Dornoch will be sent for the lead and has inside position, as does Track Phantom and possibly T O Password, this may result in Fierceness being wide into the first turn, or, if the jockey can’t get him to relax and his competitive juices kick in, this scenario may cause him to battle for the lead on fast early fractions. It is also possible a few others will use some early speed to get good position in the first quarter mile, including Catalytic, Just a Touch, West Saratoga and Stronghold.

Main contender analysis

In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone ran the third fastest race of all the horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby, earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure. That was a strong improvement off his 3-year-old debut winning the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February with a 98 figure. As a 2-year-old and in only the second start of his career in the G2 Remsen Stakes last November, Sierra Leone made a sweeping move on the far turn from seventh with a quarter mile to run, making the lead and looking like a winner until a bit of inexperience got to him and he idled waiting for a challenge, allowing Dornoch to come back and beat him by a nose. When he returned as a 3-year-old in February, trainer Chad Brown added blinkers. The result of that change in equipment, along with maturity, led to a visually impressive win in the Risen Star with the same kind of wide and powerful move on the far turn from seventh as he had shown in the Remsen, this time continuing to rally and win by a half-length. In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone was even more impressive as he rallied from seventh past a group of horses on the turn, then lengthened his stride to overtake the remaining three horses in the last eighth of a mile. He’s a very smart horse and when given his cue to speed up does just that. For example, in the Blue Grass he sped up from 37 miles per hour to nearly 39 miles per hour, then coasted out at about 36 mile per hour. In the Derby, this kind of on-command acceleration should allow Sierra Leone to quickly pass a lot of horses on the far turn just as many are tiring, enabling him to be in a good position to pass any remaining horses in the final portion of the race to win.

Just Steel earned the highest last race figure in the field, 112, although he ran second in the Arkansas Derby. Muth, the winner of that race, is not eligible to run in this year’s Derby. It must be recalled that Mage, who won the Derby last year, had run second to Forte (who had to withdraw from the Derby at the last minute due to a foot problem) in the Florida Derby prior to winning this race. Just Steel tries hard every time he runs, and although he has won just twice in 11 races, he has finished second in four other races. Better still, three of those runner-up efforts have come this year, in Derby prep races. Just Steel doesn’t have the ability to speed up in the same way Sierra Leone does, and he doesn’t have the early speed Fierceness has, but Just Steel tries hard nearly every time he runs. As a son of 2018 Derby winner Justify, there is little doubt Just Steel can run well at the mile and one-quarter trip of the Derby, and as he’s likely to be somewhat ignored by many bettors, we should not ignore his chances particularly as he’s trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the 88-year-old Hall-of-Fame trainer who has won the Kentucky Derby four times.

Fierceness may have his work cut out for him based on the early pace scenario mentioned earlier, but given how easily and powerfully he won the Florida Derby, and the 110 figure earned in that race (second best in this field), he must be respected as a contender based on that effort. Winner of three of five career races, Fierceness proved he belongs at the top level with a 6 1/4-length win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall with the same 110 figure. He returned to start his 3-year-old campaign in February and disappointed badly when third in the Holy Bull Stakes but did have somewhat of an excuse as he was bumped on both sides at the start then moved up fast, perhaps using too much energy to hold off the winner and runner-up in the stretch. Still, he appears to be the kind of horse which, if he has trouble in a race, just refuses to fire. This was the case in the G1 Champagne Stakes last October when he lunged forward at the start and was sixth for the opening half-mile, then faded to seventh. He’s likely more mature now and his Hall of Fame trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Derby twice, so likely has trained the horse to recover mentally if things don’t go his way and that means he might be very tough in this year’s Derby.

Resilience, like Sierra Leone, has been a much better horse since adding blinkers. He wore them for the first time in the Wood Memorial on April 6, resulting in a career-best 103 figure, a 10-point improvement off the 93 figure earned when fading to fourth in the Risen Star after running second early in the stretch. In both of his wins, Resilience rallied from third on the far turn to get the lead and held it nicely in the stretch. As a son of Into Mischief, Resilience should relish the mile and one-quarter distance and he’s trained by another Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, whose Country House ran brilliantly when rallying from ninth to second in the 2019 Derby and was declared the winner when Maximum Security was disqualified for interference. Given that Resilience is on a pattern for another career-best effort, he is another horse we likely should think about when considering our wagers in this race.

Endlessly might be discounted by many bettors as his owner and trainer originally stated they would pass the Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, as he had only run on grass or all-weather in his six career starts. Now that they have decided to run in the Derby, it might be considered a case of Derby fever but a closer look reveals Endlessly might fit with some of the top contenders in the field. Winner of five of six races and having won two in a row at 1 1/8 miles, Endlessly appears capable of running well at the Derby distance. His sire is Oscar Performance, who is better known for producing top runners on grass, but Oscar Performance has produced eight horses that have won on dirt, from 31 runners, and one of them (Tumbarumba) is a multiple stakes winner. In the Jeff Ruby, Endlessly made a visually impressive rally from seventh on the turn to be in front in the stretch before drawing off, so his 99 figure might have been higher and an improvement off the 101 figure earned six weeks earlier winning the El Camino Real Derby. Although only one winner of the Jeff Ruby has competed well in the Derby, that one was Animal Kingdom in 2011 who, like Endlessly, had only run on turf or all-weather tracks before winning this race. To further demonstrate the colt may run well on dirt, Endlessly recently put in a strong half-mile workout at Churchill Downs and he gets jockey Umberto Rispoli, who has been aboard for both of the colt’s wins this year.

Just a Touch was making only his third career start last month in the Blue Grass Stakes and his first start in a two-turn race. Improving to a career-best 105 figure in that race, Just a Touch moved up from second (where he had been since the start) to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to run before being passed by the more experienced Sierra Leone. Just a Touch continued on in fine fashion to end up nearly four lengths in front of the next horse (Epic Ride). As shown by other top 3-year-olds in this year’s Derby, experience can really be helpful so as he is making his second start in a two-turn race and as he is sired by 2018 Derby winner Justify, Just a Touch deserves consideration as a contender in this year’s Derby field.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is Catalytic (90), Catching Freedom (98), Domestic Product (92), Dornoch (102), Epic Ride (99), Forever Young (JPN) (110), Grand Mo the First (91), Honor Marie (97), also-eligible Mugatu (96), Mystik Dan (110), T O Password (JPN) (98), Society Man (97), Stronghold (99), Track Phantom (100) and West Saratoga (93),

Win contenders in preference order

Sierra Leone
Just Steel
Fierceness
Resilience
Endlessly
Just a Touch

Grade 1, $5-Million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve
Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 4
Race 12 - Post Time 6:57 p.m. ET
1 1/4 Miles, 3-Year-Olds
Television: NBC Sports

You can get Ellis Starr's full card detailed analysis (about 10 pages in all), including more detailed comments on Kentucky Derby entrants, as well as betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 4, at Equibase.com